Anura Kumara Dissanayake
Dr. Harini Amarasuriya
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An NPP victory at the 2024 Presidential election is crucial to realising the radical transformation that the Sri Lankan electorate, especially the younger generation, eagerly desires. The NPP has indeed developed its public profile and has the potential to be the agent of change. However, a victory would only be possible if major reforms, such as those outlined above, are urgently implemented. An NPP victory would also be a major boost to the Sri Lankan left and could strengthen other Marxist parties
- At the 2024 Presidential election the NPP still has a chance to clutch victory from the jaws of defeat
Sri Lanka goes to a Presidential election on 21 September. Since the people-led protests in 2022, the National People’s Power (NPP), a political coalition led by the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) has become an alternative and has dominated polls for the past two years. However, the latest polling by the Institute of Health Policy shows that the NPP is no longer in the lead. Instead, the SJB, a centre-right political party composed of former United National Party (UNP) members, is leading, with 43%. The NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) stands at 30%.
NPP/JVP’s importance
Since independence, Sri Lanka has been governed by the island’s political class. Politics were a game of musical chairs between the centre-right UNP and the centre-left SLFP. The NPP represents a shift of power from the aristocratic political class to everyday citizens.
The JVP first came to being in the mid-1960s, as the old left in Sri Lankan politics joined ruling coalitions. The Marxist-Leninist party has had a turbulent impact on Sri Lankan politics through its youth insurrections of 1971 and 1988-89. JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera was assassinated in 1989 and the party membership was decimated. It re-emerged in the mid-1990s, securing one parliamentary seat at the 1994 general election. The JVP subsequently reinforced its position as a third force in parliamentary politics. In 2020, three NPP MPs were elected, including Dr. Harini Amarasuriya an academic and member of the Progressive Women’s Collective (PWC), one of the NPP’s leading coalition partners.
The combination of economic shocks (2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks and the COVID-19 pandemic), structural problems (external debt) and bad policy decisions (e.g. the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration’s fertiliser ban and the financing of external debt from foreign reserves) lead to the country’s economic decline in 2022. As a response, an unprecedented mass protest campaign, Aragalaya (struggle), ran for five months. A popular demand called for all the 225 sitting MPs in the country’s legislature to be sacked. It is in this context that the NPP subsequently reinforced its popularity.
The upcoming Presidential election is crucial for the NPP to initiate the people’s call to reject the ruling political class and set into motion the system change that they demanded.
Today’s NPP/JVP
Despite its focus on class politics and critique of the old guard aristocracy, the NPP’s track record in politics over the last 20 years has been tainted by its frequent support of Sinhala ethnonationalism, opposition to a peaceful negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict, support for the war effort in 2006-2009 (Eezham War IV). The NPP is also home to patriarchal structures and houses a limited number of minorities in its politburo and Central Committee.
Since its inception, the NPP has expressed support for gender equality, LGBT+ rights, and labour rights, particularly unpaid care. However, there are policy inconsistencies and a lack of clarity. On questions around sex work, for example, they have failed to adopt a clear stance on the issue. They support partial decriminalisation, but not full decriminalisation such as the abolition of the Brothel Ordinance. Instead, they intend to abolish the material conditions that lead people to the sex trade. This is a fair position, if backed by a clear economic plan that seeks to end precarity and connect vulnerable people to essential resources such as social housing and social protection. In the absence of an alternative economic plan, this stance appears to be baseless.
Odds of an NPP victory
Despite favourable numbers in opinion polls, the NPP is currently faced with major shortcomings. Their presidential candidate, AKD, is far from marketable to Sri Lanka’s ethnic majority Sinhala electorate, let alone to ethnic minorities. At first glance, he fits the bill in conservative terms, he is Sinhala, Buddhist, and from the Govigama (farmer) caste. However, the JVP’s legacy as a violent militant outfit continues to give it bad press among segments of the Sinhala community. Many families in southern Sri Lanka are haunted by memories of murdered family members and the enforced disappearances initiated by the State in the counter-insurrection.
The JVP also carries a negative reputation as a disruptive force that vandalised State and private-owned property during its insurrections, and this image is considerably etched in public memory. Nevertheless, the NPP’s entrance into parliamentary politics, some internal reform in the past decades and the pressure of the economic crisis, means that AKD has a chance of securing a considerable portion of the Sinhala vote.
Most importantly, AKD is far from marketable to the island’s ethnic minorities, primarily the Tamil and Muslim communities. Many in the Tamil community are dismayed by the JVP’s Sinhala nationalism, especially its vehement opposition to the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, a by-product of the 1987 Indo-Lanka Accord that provides limited devolution to the Northern and Eastern provinces. The JVP also has a track record of supporting a military solution to the ethnic conflict. Despite its best efforts to appeal to the Muslim community, the NPP does not have significant political representation in Muslim majority electorates, especially in the Eastern Province. Unless the NPP takes urgent measures to address its lack of appeal to these minority constituencies, its loss is a given.
The AKD candidacy also comes with its share of international challenges. In February 2024, the Indian government invited a high-level NPP delegation to Delhi, with AKD getting a one-to-one meeting with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. However, the JVP also has an extremely confrontational history with India. Its second insurrection was launched in opposition to the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987 and the limited devolution package it proposed. This legacy of its anti-India rhetoric makes it challenging for a prospective NPP government to facilitate healthy diplomatic ties with Delhi (and by extension, build cordial ties with Tamil Nadu and Kerala), Colombo’s most vital bilateral relationship.
By extension, AKD does not have the profile that would enable him to constructively engage with the MENA region, the EU or the USA. The NPP has also not taken any significant steps to connect with leading political movements of the left including the governments in several South American countries, political developments in West Africa, and successful political campaigns (such as Progressive International and DiEM25). The NPP has also not developed significant ties with like-minded political movements in the South Asian region. Most importantly, the NPP has so far not clarified its foreign policy positions, or its policy with regard to major international crises, including the Palestinian question. A severe public critique of the NPP is that it lacks political experience and lacks a team, unlike its competitor the SJB. The NPP has also failed to publish a manifesto in the three official languages of the state, which could serve as a roadmap if elected.
Can the NPP win?
The NPP still has a chance of winning the 2024 Presidential election. However, this is possible only if certain strategic decisions are taken.
Firstly, the NPP needs to change their presidential candidate. The strongest leader in the coalition with the best chances of winning is Dr. Harini Amarasuriya MP. A member of the PWC and a former academic, Amarasuriya does not represent the tainted legacy of the JVP and is appreciated as a trusted leader across the board.
Secondly, when it comes to ethnic minorities, Amarasuriya is better placed to build the confidence among the Tamil and Muslim vote base because of her cosmopolitan appeal. The NPP needs to reach out to other Marxist parties, especially the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) and the People’s Struggle Alliance (PSA). They would tremendously benefit from the presence of Swasthika Arulingam, the PSA’s most promising leader. A member of the Tamil community, Arulingam advocates for labour rights and gender equality across the island. She appeals to the Sinhala left, urban voters and the LGBT+ community. If potential NPP-FSP negotiations were to be successful, Arulingam would be best placed to engage with the Tamil vote and (re)build the Tamil left decimated by the LTTE.
Thirdly, the NPP needs to clearly demonstrate its plans to govern. What would be the composition of their cabinet of ministers? How would ministerial portfolios be allocated? What would be the NPP presidency’s 100-day plan? These are important questions to voters, because of the way in which previous governments have systematically mismanaged these vital decisions.
In this context, the NPP should set up a shadow cabinet. As the NPP currently has only three parliamentary seats, this shadow cabinet could be termed ‘Policy Divisions’, which would eventually transform into ministerial portfolios once elected. They should have Division Heads (future ministers) with full oversight, deputy heads, and advisory committees. An unprecedented step in Sri Lankan politics would be to ensure 50-50 gender parity among Division Heads and focus on ensuring the representation of ethnic and other minorities. These Policy Divisions can then carry out public consultations on policy issues, produce research, organise events and gradually prepare to govern. This structure can help reassure an anxious and frustrated electorate that feels betrayed and misled by their representatives. The policy positions of each Policy Division should be clearly communicated in (Sinhala, Tamil and English) so that all voters have equal access to information.
An NPP victory at the 2024 Presidential election is crucial to realising the radical transformation that the Sri Lankan electorate, especially the younger generation, eagerly desires. The NPP has indeed developed its public profile and has the potential to be the agent of change. However, a victory would only be possible if major reforms, such as those outlined above, are urgently implemented. An NPP victory would also be a major boost to the Sri Lankan left and could strengthen other Marxist parties. Historically, Marxist parties acted as junior parties in ruling coalitions such as the United Front coalition of 1970-77 and could never truly initiate or implement their policy objectives. This is also an opportunity to foster a sense of class consciousness across the island—the ultimate civic engine needed to realise system change.
The ball is in the NPP’s court. The question is: are they playing to win or lose?
(Devana Senanayake is a journalist based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. She focuses on labour from a Marxist perspective. Her articles have been published in the Washington Post, The Guardian, Aljazeera and Foreign Policy. Dr. Chamindra Weerawardhana is a political and international affairs researcher and analyst. She has taught in France, the Netherlands, UK and Canada. She is also a political organiser and human rights advocate, focusing on intersectional feminist and de-colonial practices. She advises governmental and supranational bodies, providing expert insights into issues of foreign policy, multilateralism, human rights diplomacy and more.)
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