Uncertainty in Bangladesh: BNP, army differ on election timing
By Nitya Chakraborty
Over seventeen days have passed since the abdication of office of former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, following which she has taken political shelter in India. Since then conflicting trends are visible in the functioning of the interim government headed by Dr. Muhammad Yunus, as also in the activities of the political parties in the faction-ridden country. Three major trends are visible now.
First, the interim government, especially the students are not favouring immediate elections – within three months as demanded by the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. The student leaders in the interim government have announced their decision to form a new political party and that process will take months, perhaps even more than six months. The army is also not in favour of immediate national elections. They want more time to stabilise. So is the view of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the head of the interim government.
Second, as regards the operations of the political parties in the post-Hasina phase, the Awami League leaders are under attack. Most of them are hiding. Some of them tried contacting India for shelter through their sources, but did not get a favourable response. The Awami League organisation is in a mess. BNP and Jamaat are taking full advantage of the present anti-Awami League sentiment to cripple the AL organisations. All-out attacks made against the senior Awami League leaders are being engineered by the fundamentalists who are now seizing the opportunity, as the state police administration is still paralysed. The Hindu community organisations have to field their own volunteers and seek help from local communities to protect themselves. They cannot depend on the police for protection.
Third, the present situation is a free run for the US and Chinese diplomats. US ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas and the Chinese ambassador Yao Wen are the most sought after by the politicians and the important people of Bangladesh. China has much more influence on the defence forces, economy and political parties in Bangladesh.compared to the US. US diplomats were not allowed to get free access before the January elections, but things changed after February this year, with the US ambassador taking active interest in establishing good relations with the Hasina government.
The US has solid relations with the BNP, and even with a section of the Awami League which is of no use now. On the contrary, China has kept good relations with the BNP while maintaining excellent relations with the Hasina government, Awami League leaders as well as a good section of the students and media. All these have put China in a more advantageous position in Bangladesh now, as against the USA as both try to influence the course of events in the conflict-prone nation. Russia did a lot for Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League government in terms of giving economic assistance but with Hasina gone, Russia now has little leverage.. BNP has always avoided Russia at the instance of the US. As regards India, South Block is rightly monitoring the developments in Bangladesh patiently and it will take some time for India to take forward steps to establish new relations and cultivate the new rulers in Dhaka.
As regards Jamaat, this is the best of times. The party has started getting a big inflow of foreign funds from many foundations from different countries of the world. Hasina crippled the organisation financially by tightening the funds inflow. Similar is the position of BNP. The party gets funds from both the U.S. and China. BNP supremo Begum Khaleda Zia earlier gave instructions from the hospital bed after August 5. Now, she is free and back home after treatment. She will be more active now in directly contacting the interim government. She may not be liked by Md. Yunus but she has contacts in the army. She will cultivate that.
Bangladesh has always been a nation with corruption reigning at every level. The Awami League leaders were no exception. In the last five years, the corruption of the ruling party politicians increased. Also there is a menace of foreign funds which go to all sections of political parties, including the media. The post August 5 situation is no different. The only difference is that the Awami League leaders are in the no-go category. With their exception the funds have been flowing to every section including those who are trying to form a new political party. The situation is bizarre.
The immediate challenge for India is to deal with the demand for extradition of Sheikh Hasina, if it is officially made by the interim government of Bangladesh headed by Dr. Md. Yunus. So far, only BNP has made the demand and it has been mentioned in general terms by a member of the interim government. But if finally, the demand comes officially, then what will be the position of India? India and Bangladesh signed an extradition treaty in 2013 and it was amended in 2016 to simplify the process.
Hasina has been accused of a number of murder charges estimated at eighteen now, and the mood is such that if Hasina is extradited, harshest punishment will be given to her. This may include even hanging. The internal situation is such that the Awami League cannot expect any transparent legal process to be followed. There will be a mob and media trial of Hasina. Only international human rights lawyers can intervene effectively, but Hasina’s record of 300 deaths in police firing in the last one month preceding August 5 puts hers as a fit case for International Crimes Tribunal. So the situation is very tricky.
India has the option of refusing Hasina’s extradition on grounds that the accusations made against Hasina are not in good faith or in the interests of justice. But this is not just a bilateral issue, it involves the issues of humanitarian justice. India has to talk to the USA on this issue to see that the situation does not reach a point where the interim government will give an ultimatum to the Indian government to extradite Sheikh Hasina. Dr. Yunus will not take any steps on the extradition issue without consulting the US and China. India may have some problems in talking to China, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi must take up the issue with the US administration so that no ultimatum is sent by Bangladesh. The issue should be resolved on the basis of mutual discussions involving international assistance. (IPA Service)
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