Serbia has made great progress in understanding climate change and it is now time to invest in the reduction of all risks to which the state and society are exposed, which involves multiyear planning and investment in action plans
Over the last decade, almost every summer has broken records as the hottest ever. This summer’s extremely high temperatures caused a drought that led to agricultural losses of more than a billion euros. We have also experienced critically low water levels in rivers, including the complete drying up of the Ibar, as well as several periods of torrential rainfall exceeding 40-50 litres per square metre.
Science has already confirmed categorically that human-induced changes are irreversible and we must adapt to the new reality while striving to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This means that we will either have more moisture and precipitation in short periods of time or too little moisture and precipitation. Half of the years in the decade ahead will be hit by drought, while disasters will claim the values that we earn.
The droughts of 2012 and 2017 serve as reminders of the losses that the economy suffers due to droughts and reduced yields. Agricultural losses amounted to over $2.4 billion in 2012, while those losses exceeded $1.2 billion in 2017. The export of agricultural products is an important resource for Serbia. In 2021, the agriculture sector exported products worth approximately €3.7 billion, accounting for 16.7% of that year’s total exports. Depending on the year, agriculture contributes 4-6% to Serbia’s GDP. Considering that 30-40% of the population lives in rural areas and agriculture employs around 14% of the country’s workforce, its importance is clear.
According to the UNDP study, investments in prevention can generally reduce damage in Serbia by 70-90%
In addition to losses caused by drought, agriculture and urban areas are also suffering from extreme rainfall. Floods lead to some fields becoming unusable. The latest UNDP study shows that the damage caused by flood protection measures was 15% less than it would have been without these measures. According to the UNDP study, investments in prevention can generally reduce damage in Serbia by 70-90%.
With climate forecasts predicting more frequent and intense droughts in the coming decades, UNDP is working with the Government of Serbia to explore ways to minimise drought-related losses and secure food supplies. A few years ago, we launched an initiative that could strengthen the resilience of small and medium-sized fruit and vegetable producers to water insecurity, particularly in regions where there are no systematic irrigation solutions. This initiative proposes the development of irrigation systems in central and southern Serbia to ensure the continuous production of fruit and vegetables. This infrastructure would also reduce the destructive effects of flooding, doubling its positive contribution. The construction of water collection and storage infrastructure is one of the key measures outlined in the National Climate Change Adaptation Programme.
Serbia has made great progress in understanding climate change, data availability and threats to agriculture and the economy in general. The Climate Change Adaptation Programme has been adopted and the Environmental Protection Strategy and Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Management Strategy are being developed. The Disaster Risk Register contains data on the exposure and vulnerability of structures and defence capacities. Everything is known, and it is now time to invest in the reduction of all risks to which the state and society are exposed, which involves multiyear planning and investment in action plans.
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