Exports in June shrank by 0.3%, representing the first contraction in three months, due to the end of the season for fruit products, the Commerce Ministry said on Friday, adding that it still expected exports to grow overall this year.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said Thailand’s exports in June 2024 decreased by 0.3% to US$24.7 billion while imports increased by 0.3% to $24.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $218 million.
It was the first decline in three months, dragged down by agricultural and agro-industrial products.
For the first half of 2024, Thai exports increased by 2% to $145 billion while imports increased by 3% to roughly $150 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.24 billion.
Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products dropped by 3.3% year-on-year.
Products that expanded well were rice, rubber, processed chicken, pet food, canned and processed fruit, and animal and vegetable fats and oils.
In contrast, exports of some products decreased, namely fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit, sugar, beverages, and fresh, chilled and frozen chicken.
In the first half of 2024, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products rose by 3.3%.
Exports of industrial products increased by 0.3% year-on-year, continuing growth for a third month.
Exports of significant products that expanded included automobiles, equipment and parts, computers, computer equipment and parts, machinery and mechanical components, and telephones, equipment and parts.
Meanwhile, exports of some other products declined, such as rubber products, plastic pellets, chemicals, circuit boards, iron and steel, and internal combustion engines and parts.
In the first half of 2024, exports of industrial products increased by 2%.
Exports are expected to rise by 1-2% in 2024, according to the TPSO.
For the remaining months of the year, if the value amounts to $23.7 billion per month on average, exports would expand by 1%, while if the value amounts to $24.2 billion, exports would expand by 2%.
The estimated overall growth of 1-2% would be driven by agriculture and food sales, the improved purchasing power of consumers in trading partner nations, and the International Monetary Fund’s global growth forecast of 3.2%.
The TPSO maintained its export growth target for the year at 1-2%.
Positive factors include the export of agricultural and food products and the growth of the digital economy, which supports demand for related goods.
However, there are risks such as drought conditions reducing agricultural output, ongoing geopolitical conflicts and civil wars, the slow recovery of the economies of some trading partners, and uncertainties from elections in various countries, causing investors to delay investments while waiting for new government policies to emerge.
“This could be a record year if exports hit 10 trillion baht,” said Mr Poonpong, adding that the crucial factor would be the economic performance of key trading partners including China, the US, Europe and India.
In the first half of the year, purchasing power in the US rose by 11.2% while in India it increased by 5.6%.
The weak baht also helped exports, said Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, along with lower freight rates.
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