Last week, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka issued an advisory for the Indian community to avoid travel and minimise movement in view of the ongoing unrest in Dhaka. They also set up a 24-hour emergency number for those needing urgent assistance. The Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, in a press briefing, stated that MEA S Jaishankar was watching the developments in Bangladesh closely and facilitating the safe return of over 4,500 Indian students.
The protests in Dhaka turned into riots when the high court decided to reinstate the quota system, which reserves 56 per cent of government jobs for certain groups, amongst which the largest quota goes to descendants of 1971 freedom fighters who won the war of independence from Pakistan. Though the Supreme Court subsequently suspended the high court order and scheduled a hearing for August 7, 2024, the protests escalated into violence, leaving over 150 dead.
The internet has been suspended, a curfew has been imposed, and police and paramilitary forces have been deployed, including anti-terrorism units. Protestors also have given the government 48 hours to meet eight demands, which include protest leaders be released, the curfew lifted, a public apology from Sheikh Hasina for calling them “Razakars” and for the state’s brutal crackdown on the protestors.
Razakar, a highly derogatory term for those who sided with Pakistan during the war for independence, was seen as an insult to the protestors, who were mostly students. The pejorative term is perceived as being synonymous with the betrayal of pro-Bangladesh forces. Sheikh Hasina’s exact response to a journalist was, “Why do they (anti-quota protestors) have so much resentment towards the freedom fighters? If the grandchildren of the freedom fighters don’t get quota benefits, should the grandchildren of Razakars get them?” However, the mere mention of Razakars in the same sentence as anti-quota protestors was enough to spiral the situation out of control. Protestors grabbed the chance to escalate the issue and responded with “Tui Ke? Ami Ke? Razakar, Razakar/Ke boleche, ke boleche, Sairachar, Sairachar” (Who are you? Who am I? We are Razakars. Who is branding us? The dictator, the dictator).
While the quota issue is not new to Bangladesh—agitations against it broke out in 2018—it is debatable whether the protests were solely about the quota system, as new facts emerge. Aside from the quota issue, many argue that the benefits received by the families of freedom fighters through the quota system eventually benefit the Awami League. After all, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (Sheikh Hasina’s father) led the fight for independence and established reservations for government jobs for those who fought in the war. These quotas have since been extended to include the descendants of freedom fighters.
The opportunity that has arisen from the protests for the Opposition to cast doubt on Sheikh Hasina’s governance is evident. Support has been extended to the protestors by the Opposition, and many Opposition leaders have been arrested, including BNP spokespersons Ruhul Kabir Rizvi Ahmed, Amir Khosru, Mahmud Choudhary, former national football captain turned BNP leader Aminul Haq, and the General Secretary of Jamaat-e-Islami, Mia Golam Parwar.
Jamaat-e-Islami, a proscribed outfit with transnational links, opposed the creation of Bangladesh and was involved in the killing of numerous liberation fighters. It has connections with various global jihadi groups and has found a political opportunity in this conflict. Its resurgence could pose a grave threat not just to Bangladesh but also to regional peace and security.
Bangladesh has been at the centre of immense anti-government activity from both internal and external sources. The situation has worsened since Sheikh Hasina won her fourth term, which has rattled many who opposed her re-election. Before her victory in the 2024 elections, the United States, supported by other Western countries, was widely accused of attempting to influence the elections. The US had demanded “fair and free” elections, suggesting that Bangladesh’s democratic processes were not robust enough. The US Treasury Department went as far as to impose sanctions on Bangladesh’s elite paramilitary force, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), as well as on seven of its current and former officers due to alleged human rights violations.
Furthermore, the US imposed visa restrictions on Bangladeshi leaders and officials whom they deemed as “undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.” Recently, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, made a revealing statement about international interests seeking to carve out a “Christian country” from parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. She claimed that a “white man” who met with her before the Bangladesh elections in January this year had assured her of facing “no problems” during the elections if she allowed them to build an airbase on Bangladeshi territory. Sheikh Hasina further compared this situation to East Timor, stating that “they will carve out a Christian country taking parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar with a base in the Bay of Bengal.”
Not far behind, the BNP also jumped onto the anti-government bandwagon, using India as its target. In Bangladeshi politics, India is at the centre of political narratives, so it is not surprising that a campaign was launched alleging Indian interference in the elections. Earlier this year, a #BoycottIndia campaign also emerged on social media, supported by Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, the BNP spokesman who was recently detained during the quota protests. He dramatically threw away his India-made shawl but did not dare burn his wife’s India-made saris. The BNP’s youth wing leader, Ershad Nabil Khan, also joined the fray. It is well-known that the divide that anti-Hasina forces are trying to create in Bangladesh vis-à-vis India is not a new phenomenon. India is used time and again in narrative wars. Consequently, whatever happens in Bangladesh has a considerable impact on India.
This time, the quota protests are no longer limited to students. Political parties and their student wings have hijacked the protests to heighten emotions against Sheikh Hasina. Dhaka Metropolitan Police Additional Commissioner and Detective Branch Chief Harun-or-Rashid said intruders had entered the quota movement to divert it towards different directions. Some elements are attempting to give the anti-quota movement a political shape. It’s clear that various designs are being played out both in Bangladesh and internationally to topple the incumbent government, but the reasons vary.
However, Sheikh Hasina’s adversaries should not underestimate her. She not only holds the distinction of being the longest-serving leader of Bangladesh but has also experienced the downside of politics, having been arrested multiple times before she came to power in 1996 and again in 2008. Since then, there has been no looking back for her. However, she will never be the Sheikh Hasina of 1996, when she did not have a clear majority. Today, she has rendered the opposition irrelevant and refused to succumb to international pressure.
Sheikh Hasina realises the importance of curbing Jamaat-e-Islam and other radical groups in the country that are pro-Pakistan. There is a zero-tolerance policy towards extremism. This stance helps India, as most radical groups have transnational ties. It was only after she came into power in 2008 that the Northeast region of India began to get some relief from insurgent groups that were being trained and given shelter in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina handed these insurgents over, dramatically improving the security situation in the region.
India must hope for the stability of the Sheikh Hasina-led government because any change in leadership would likely result in anti-India forces returning to power. Second, India’s Act East Policy and regional integration efforts will be thwarted, as this will negatively impact the growth and development of the Northeast, which relies on access to Bangladeshi ports and the transit of goods and personnel through Bangladesh. Third, Bangladesh could evolve as a hub for jihadi terrorism, with severe repercussions for India.
Therefore, in the short term, it may be prudent for the Bangladeshi government to diffuse the crisis by conceding some of the students’ demands. Continuing protests will provide fertile ground for the Opposition and anti-national elements to thrive, jeopardising Bangladesh’s security and regional stability, as well as global security.
Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently a Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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