Water desalination projects and initiatives in Morocco are promising, but agriculture, in particular, will remain vulnerable to the impacts of water scarcity, according to Fitch Solutions in its latest report.
Morocco announced in August 2024 that it will purchase water desalination technology from the United States for $27.5 million, which Fitch said promises greater benefits and recovery for the tourism sector (approximately 7% of GDP), previously hindered by government-imposed water usage restrictions.
The recent risk analysis concluded that climate change is an even greater driver for water scarcity to become a challenge for all sectors of the Moroccan economy, especially agriculture.
It cited that water basins and dams in Morocco are filled to only 27.4% of their total capacity despite the heavy rains and floods experienced in typically arid southern regions.
Morocco, like other North African markets, is expected to become drier and hotter on average, but it is also exposed to periods of heavier rainfall due to climate change, according to the research institution.
In addition to facing similar climate change impacts, Morocco is expected to experience a level of natural disaster risks according to the ESG Country Index. This aligns with most North African countries due to similar levels of infrastructure development, except for Libya where the ability to cope with natural disasters is much lower.
Fitch Solutions noted that Morocco’s acquisition of advanced seawater desalination technology worth $27.5 million is part of efforts to address water scarcity.
This agreement, announced last August with American company Energy Recovery, is part of a broader Moroccan strategy to address water scarcity, including efforts to provide half of the drinking water supply through desalination by 2030.
Fitch experts referred to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank, which revealed that Morocco currently lags behind other North African markets in terms of per capita production of desalinated water annually.
Energy recovery technology will be integrated into many desalination projects across Morocco expected to produce more than one million cubic meters of drinking water daily, representing an increase of approximately 189% compared to the current desalination capacity of around 0.53 million cubic meters daily.
For Fitch Solutions, targeted government investment and relative political stability in Morocco are positive for resource scarcity risks in the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk index.
Morocco surpasses most other North African markets. However, the model indicates that these risks will remain largely unchanged in the coming years, suggesting that water scarcity will continue to be a significant barrier and heavy burden on the economy.
Agriculture sector (about 10% of GDP), will see minimal positive benefits from desalination projects, citing that 80% of cultivated areas in Morocco are still primarily rain-fed, meaning that additional investments in water infrastructure will be needed for agriculture to benefit more from desalinated water.
However, increasing desalination capacity for irrigated agriculture, which contributes over 50% of agricultural value added, will have a positive impact. Desalination will reduce the need to divert water from irrigation to human use, as has happened during recent droughts.
Turning to the tourism sector, the same analysis anticipated benefits from desalinated water, after being hindered by water usage restrictions in previous periods.
The National Water Plan 2020-2050 indicates that desalination projects will be used to secure drinking water in large cities and, to a lesser extent, to increase water supplies available for irrigation in the agricultural sector.
Tourism faced water usage restrictions during peak seasons, particularly in areas such as Casablanca-Settat and Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, affecting public and private facilities.
Regional investments targeted at desalination have shown promising results, with the desalination plant in Agadir, operational since 2021, helping to prevent water rationing in this major tourism hub.
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